West Coast of the United States

The West Coast generates disproportionate innovation from three states that together would rank among the world's largest economies. California alone contributes 14.5% of U.S. GDP—over $4 trillion—ranking fifth globally if independent. Washington hosts Amazon and Microsoft; California shelters Alphabet, Apple, Meta, and Nvidia. Nearly 70% of U.S. venture capital in early 2025 flowed to California; seven of the ten largest American deals occurred in-state.

Yet the Pacific economy stutters. California lost 50,000 payroll jobs in the first four months of 2025; unemployment exceeded 5.3%, more than a percentage point above national averages. Oregon's revenue projections dropped $500 million. The common vulnerability: trade exposure. With a 15% effective tariff rate and threats of escalation, ports from Long Beach to Seattle face unprecedented uncertainty. West Coast economies that benefited from Asian trade integration suffer when that integration frays.

The bifurcation is visible. AI infrastructure investment, aerospace manufacturing, and high-productivity tech sectors continue expanding. Construction, hospitality, and government-funded services contract. The housing shortage—estimated at 3 million units in California alone—constrains workforce growth. Economist Mark Zandi notes that if California falters significantly, the entire U.S. economy risks recession.

By 2026, the West Coast will likely navigate this two-speed reality: innovation sectors accelerating while traditional industries adjust to trade disruptions. The tech wealth concentrates ever more narrowly; the broader economy disperses to cheaper regions.