Historical Contingency
In systems with network effects and switching costs, historical contingency can prevent convergence on optimal solutions.
Historical contingency refers to the dependence of evolutionary outcomes on prior history. Some solutions are inaccessible to certain lineages due to developmental constraints, and chance events can send evolution down non-convergent paths.
Marsupials and placentals diverged ~160 million years ago and show remarkable convergence (marsupial mole vs. golden mole, thylacine vs. gray wolf, sugar glider vs. flying squirrel), but marsupials never evolved whale-like flippers or bat-like wings because their developmental mode (young must climb to pouch at birth) constrains forelimb specialization. The QWERTY keyboard persists despite superior alternatives because path dependence, network effects, and lock-in prevent convergence on optimal solutions.
Business Application of Historical Contingency
In systems with network effects and switching costs, historical contingency can prevent convergence on optimal solutions. Early adoption decisions lock in standards before alternatives can compete. The genetic code is suboptimal but universal; changing it would require impossible coordination. Similarly, once an industry standard is established, convergence toward better alternatives may be blocked.