Genetic Drift
Organizations with small effective population sizes experience wild strategic swings based on random events rather than strategic planning.
If your organization's effective population size is below 100, randomness likely matters more than strategy.
Genetic drift represents one of evolution's most counterintuitive principles: random events can drive evolutionary change as powerfully as adaptive selection. In small populations, chance fluctuations in which individuals reproduce can cause certain genetic variants to increase in frequency while others disappear entirely, regardless of their adaptive value.
The mathematics are stark: in a population of infinite size, genetic drift has no effect - random fluctuations average out. But in real populations, which are always finite, drift is inevitable. Its power scales inversely with population size: halve the population, and you double the strength of drift. In populations of fewer than 100 individuals, drift can overpower selection entirely.
The variance in allele frequency between generations equals p(1-p)/(2N). This variance equation shows that variance is maximized at intermediate allele frequencies, scales inversely with population size, and compounds over generations until fixation or loss occurs.
Business Application of Genetic Drift
Organizations with small effective population sizes experience wild strategic swings based on random events rather than strategic planning. When your effective size is below 100 - measured by decision-makers, customers, or funding sources - randomness likely matters more than strategy.