Lower Shabelle

Lower Shabelle stretches along the Shabelle River south of Mogadishu, the agricultural zone where Al-Shabaab's 2025 offensive recaptured towns only 40 kilometers from the capital. The July 2025 seizure of Sabiid and Anole following African Union withdrawal demonstrated the fragility that counterinsurgency gains cannot make permanent.

The region's proximity to Mogadishu makes it strategically essential—control of Lower Shabelle determines whether the capital can be supplied, defended, or encircled. The 50% increase in Al-Shabaab's monthly attack rate during 2025 compared to 2024 averages concentrates particularly in Hiraan and Middle Shabelle, the pressure that extends to Lower Shabelle.

Agricultural potential along the Shabelle remains unrealized while conflict determines land access, the farming that could feed Mogadishu prevented by fighting for control of the same territory. Whether security operations can push Al-Shabaab back—or whether the insurgency continues advancing toward the capital—shapes the future of a region whose geography makes it essential to whoever would govern Somalia.