Akita
Japan's oldest prefecture (40%+ over 65, just 9.3% children), population falling 1.93%/year. 2026: sake tourism and agritourism test managed decline strategies.
Akita is Japan's future, arriving early. With over 40% of residents aged 65 or older—the only prefecture to cross that threshold—and just 9.3% children (lowest in Japan), Akita previews what demographic collapse looks like. Population fell 1.93% in 2025 alone, the steepest decline of any prefecture. By 2050, projections show roughly 560,000 residents—little more than 60% of today's 878,000.
The name itself—"autumn rice paddy"—reveals the economy that young people are leaving. Akita's traditional dominance in rice cultivation, sake brewing, forestry, and mineral extraction (including Japan's most important oil fields) cannot sustain communities when the average farmer is 67 years old. As one researcher noted: "From Akita to Aomori, entire communities are disappearing as young people move to cities."
Yet Akita offers a counter-narrative through adaptation. The government promotes "sake tourism" to save breweries that once served local workers. Agritourism programs invite urbanites to experience "pristine forests, sprawling rice fields, and range of cultures." Home stays integrate outsiders into local practices. The Satake clan ruled here for 260 years during Tokugawa rule, developing the agriculture and mining that defined Akita—now that legacy requires a different kind of preservation. By 2026, Akita's experiment in managed decline may prove more valuable than its rice: how does a society age gracefully when growth is impossible?