Cairo Governorate
The New Administrative Capital ($58 billion) launched in April 2024 as Cairo hit 22.9 million—but only 1,500 families occupy completed housing, testing whether policy can override demographic gravity.
Cairo Governorate hosts 22.9 million people in 2025—Egypt's demographic gravity well where 20% of national GDP concentrates. This single metropolitan area tripled from 8 million since 1984, creating density of 7,400/km² that drives infrastructure strain. Approximately 60% of Greater Cairo residents live in informal settlements—organic growth exceeding formal planning capacity.
The New Administrative Capital, inaugurated April 2024 when President Sisi took his third-term oath there, represents a $58 billion attempt to escape Cairo's constraints. Built 45 kilometers east halfway to Suez, the 950 km² project has 8 million population capacity. Government ministries relocated; parliament convenes there. Yet only 1,500 families occupy completed high-end residential properties—suggesting elite decanting rather than congestion relief.
Cairo demonstrates how urban primacy creates path-dependent concentration. The city's economic, political, and cultural functions reinforce each other: businesses locate near government; talent follows jobs; infrastructure investment follows density. This positive feedback loop makes deconcentration difficult even with deliberate policy intervention.
Egypt Vision 2030 aims to distribute growth—but 95% of Egypt's population lives within 20 kilometers of the Nile. Geographic constraints limit options. The New Capital may become a functioning satellite or an expensive monument to planning ambition that demographic gravity eventually overwhelms.