Keystone Analysis Framework
A systematic method for identifying and protecting the critical dependencies that structure your organization.
A systematic method for identifying and protecting the critical dependencies that structure your organization. Unlike traditional risk management (which focuses on probability of loss) or key person risk (which focuses only on humans), Keystone Analysis examines structural position: which dependencies have disproportionate impact and cascading consequences.
When to Use Keystone Analysis Framework
Series A-B companies (20-100 people) with $2M+ ARR, where you have critical dependencies that aren't immediately obvious - systems, people, customers whose loss would significantly impact the business but might not be on leadership's radar. Prerequisites: product-market fit achieved, some organizational complexity (multiple teams, products, or systems), growth trajectory where dependencies are multiplying.
How to Apply
Map Structural Dependencies
Create a dependency map showing direct dependencies (A requires B), indirect dependencies (transitive: A requires B requires C), and circular dependencies. Use visualization tools (Lucidchart, Miro, draw.io) to create dependency graphs where nodes are components and edges are dependencies.
Questions to Ask
- What would break immediately if [system/person/customer] disappeared tomorrow?
- What are the direct and indirect dependencies?
- Which nodes have many incoming arrows but few outgoing arrows?
Outputs
- Visual dependency map
- Spreadsheet documenting Component | Depends On | Impact If Lost | Type
Calculate Keystone Index (KI)
For each component in your dependency map, estimate KI = (Impact if removed) / (Current resource allocation). Use specific metrics: for customers, calculate direct revenue + referral revenue + case study impact + roadmap influence. For technical components, calculate blocked capacity + revenue at risk + replacement cost.
Questions to Ask
- What is the total estimated impact if this component is removed?
- What resources are currently allocated to this component?
Outputs
- KI score for each dependency candidate
- KI > 10 = keystone, KI > 50 = critical keystone
Assess Functional Uniqueness and Substitutability
Determine whether alternatives exist for each high-KI component. Score Substitution Difficulty: Immediately substitutable (0.1), Substitutable with effort (0.5), Difficult to substitute (2), Functionally irreplaceable (10). Calculate Keystone Severity = KI × Substitution Difficulty.
Questions to Ask
- Are there alternative vendors or internal systems?
- How long would substitution take?
- What are the switching costs?
Outputs
- Substitution Difficulty score
- Keystone Severity score
- 2x2 matrix placement (Impact vs Substitution Difficulty)
Identify Human Keystones
Identify individuals whose knowledge, relationships, or skills are functionally irreplaceable. Use the 'hit by a bus' test: if this person were gone tomorrow, what would break? Look for unique knowledge holders, unique relationship holders, and unique skill holders.
Questions to Ask
- Who is the only person who understands [critical system]?
- Who holds exclusive relationships with key customers/partners?
- Who has rare technical skills or disproportionate productivity?
Outputs
- List of human keystones with KI and Severity scores
- Risk assessment for each human keystone
Implement Keystone Protection Strategies
Protect based on severity: Create redundancy (Severity >100) through knowledge documentation, cross-training, and relationship backup. Reduce dependence (Severity 50-100) by decoupling systems and standardizing to commodity solutions. Increase investment (KI >50) by adding headcount, budget, and management attention. Formalize with keystone register and quarterly reviews.
Questions to Ask
- What protection strategy is appropriate for this severity level?
- What is the investment required vs. the risk mitigated?
Outputs
- Protection strategy for each keystone
- Keystone register with KI, Severity, Protection Strategy, Owner, Last Review
Recognize Warning Signs of Keystone Erosion
Monitor for erosion indicators: declining uniqueness (alternatives emerging), declining dependency (fewer new adopters), declining investment (resources decreasing). Set up quarterly reviews asking: 'Are any of our keystones showing erosion warning signs?' Respond aggressively when signs appear.
Questions to Ask
- Are alternatives emerging in the market?
- Are fewer new products/teams adopting this keystone?
- Is investment decreasing year-over-year?
Outputs
- Erosion monitoring dashboard
- Early warning triggers
- Response playbooks