Certainty Calibration Framework
A framework for assessing and calibrating your certainty level to determine if you're in the germination window.
A framework for assessing and calibrating your certainty level to determine if you're in the germination window. The optimal window is 60-75% certainty.
When to Use Certainty Calibration Framework
When you think you might be ready to launch but aren't sure if you're being too cautious or too aggressive. Use to calibrate against the germination paradox.
How to Apply
Identify Your Certainty Level
Match your current state to certainty benchmarks: 40% = gut feeling, no validation. 60% = talked to 20+ customers, crude prototype used. 75% = 10 paying customers, working product. 90% = everyone asking for this, competitors raising huge rounds.
Outputs
- Current certainty level (40/60/75/90%)
Map to Germination Window
Determine if you're in the window: <60% = Too early (insufficient signal). 60-75% = Right window (germinate). 75-90% = Getting late (competitors ahead). >90% = Window closing (probably too late).
Outputs
- Window assessment
- Timing recommendation
Calibration Check
If 100% certain, ask: Why has no one else done this? If answer is 'they're all idiots,' you're probably wrong. If answer is 'enabling infrastructure just matured in last 12 months,' you might be right.
Outputs
- Calibrated certainty
- Reality check result