Sturgeon's Law

Biological Parallel

The 90% rule is evolution's fundamental operating principle. Over 99.9% of all species that ever lived are now extinct—background extinction eliminates species continuously, and five mass extinctions accelerated the churn. Beneficial mutations are rare—traditional estimates suggested less than 1%, though 2025 research indicates they may be more common than previously thought; the vast majority remain neutral or deleterious, purged by selection pressure. Oak trees produce thousands of acorns annually, yet in non-mast years seed predators consume 100% of the crop before germination. High failure rates aren't waste—they're the cost of generating variation. The 10% that succeeds does so because the 90% failed first, creating the evolutionary landscape that reveals which strategies work. Sturgeon's Law is selection's engine: most options fail, and that's what makes the rare successes valuable.