Concept · Cognitive Bias: Causal and statistical fallacies
Regression fallacy
Origin: Modern statistics; Galton
Biological Parallel
After an exceptionally cold winter, populations of temperate insects rebound. This isn't evidence that cold strengthens populations—it's regression to the mean. Extreme events (harsh winters, disease outbreaks, resource pulses) create temporary deviations from baseline; populations naturally return to equilibrium without intervention. Mistaking natural fluctuation for causation leads to spurious conclusions about what 'works' in ecosystem management.