Concept · Decision-Making Mental Models
Pre-Mortem
Origin: Gary Klein
Biological Parallel
Before migrating 11,000 miles, arctic terns scout weather patterns and fat reserves—they're simulating failure modes before committing. Bet-hedging strategies across biology represent pre-mortems written in DNA: desert annuals germinate seeds across multiple years because in arid ecosystems, betting everything on one rain is a death sentence. Organisms that run mental simulations of 'what could kill us' before acting—from scout bees checking nest sites to wolves assessing prey defenses—systematically outlive impulsive optimists.