Inside view bias

Biological Parallel

Conservation biologists predict species recovery based on their specific plan: 'Our habitat restoration will save this salamander population.' Inside view: focus on plan details, ignore base rates. But the base rate of habitat restoration success is 30%—their plan, however detailed, likely reflects that distribution. The outside view: check how similar projects performed historically. Island reintroductions fail 70% of the time; your superior plan probably won't beat those odds. Inside view creates planning fallacy; outside view provides statistical humility.