Concept · Cognitive Bias: Probability and statistical reasoning errors
Hot hand fallacy
Origin: Gilovich, Vallone & Tversky, 1985
Biological Parallel
Natural resources cluster: berries on bushes, prey in herds, nectar in patches. Ant pheromone trails strengthen with success, scrub jays return to productive caches, wolf packs intensify hunting in successful territories. The hot hand heuristic is biologically optimal in clumped environments and only fails in the artificially independent domains humans invented.