Biology of Business

Concept · Cognitive Bias: Probability and statistical reasoning errors

Hot hand fallacy

Origin: Gilovich, Vallone & Tversky, 1985

By Alex Denne

Biological Parallel

Natural resources cluster: berries on bushes, prey in herds, nectar in patches. Ant pheromone trails strengthen with success, scrub jays return to productive caches, wolf packs intensify hunting in successful territories. The hot hand heuristic is biologically optimal in clumped environments and only fails in the artificially independent domains humans invented.