Asymmetric Bets

Biological Parallel

Caching animals like squirrels and jays hide thousands of seeds annually. Most caches are recovered, but forgotten seeds germinate into trees. The asymmetry is striking: successful cache retrieval provides one meal; a forgotten cache can produce a tree yielding thousands of future meals. This positive asymmetry—limited downside (one lost nut), unlimited upside (decades of mast crops)—drives seed dispersal mutualisms. Taleb's asymmetric bets follow identical logic: risk small amounts for potential unlimited returns, where losses are capped but gains aren't.