Moderna

Moderna spent 10 years and $2.5 billion with zero revenue. No mRNA drug had ever been approved when they started in 2010. The allocation was extreme: 80% to R&D, 15% to capital raising, 5% to infrastructure. This is what proper cotyledon dependency looks like - burning stored energy to build roots before seeking sunlight.

The platform approach paid off when Chinese scientists published the SARS-CoV-2 sequence on January 11, 2020. Moderna designed a COVID vaccine in 48 hours. When they 'flowered' in 2020, the plant was mature - resulting in $120+ billion in revenue and a viable ongoing business. Market cap exploded from $7 billion to nearly $200 billion.

Moderna demonstrates two critical lessons: how population bottlenecks crystallize organizational capabilities, and why timing matters for flowering. The COVID-19 pandemic created a severe bottleneck that selected for mRNA platforms' speed advantage. If Moderna had flowered earlier - like Theranos rushing to market without mature technology - it would have collapsed. If they'd waited longer, competitors would have claimed the niche. The lesson: build deep roots, then flower when the moment arrives.