HelloFresh

Provisioning systems face fundamental trade-offs: convenience costs efficiency, while customization fights scale. HelloFresh commands ~50% of the global meal kit market with 75% share in U.S. and Europe combined, yet reported declining revenue outlook for 2025 (down 3-8% in constant currency) as the pandemic's forced adoption reversed. The company generated €7.66 billion in 2024 with North America contributing 66% (€5.53 billion), but Q1 2025 saw 15.2% year-over-year revenue decline in the U.S. This reflects frequency-dependent selection: when everyone cooked at home (2020-2021), meal kits thrived; as restaurants reopened, the novelty disadvantage emerged. HelloFresh's strategic pivot toward "higher-value customers" demonstrates r-to-K selection shift: sacrificing volume growth for profitability by serving customers with higher average order values and retention rates. Ready-to-Eat products reached 28% of total revenue (€2.03 billion) in 2024, growing low-to-mid teens in 2025 while the Meal Kits segment declines 10%+. This diversification mirrors adaptive radiation—using the same supply chain infrastructure and customer relationships to colonize adjacent niches (prepared meals, snacks). The HelloFresh PLUS loyalty program launched February 2025 to increase order frequency through costly-signaling: members pay upfront, creating switching costs that reduce churn. Yet meal kits face structural headwinds: grocery stores added prepared meal sections; ghost kitchens deliver restaurant quality; ingredient boxes require customer labor that many won't sustain. The €25.68 billion global market (2024) projects 16.1% CAGR to €114 billion by 2034, but HelloFresh's decline suggests consolidation around a smaller, more committed user base. In ecology, specialists outcompete generalists in stable niches but suffer when environments shift. HelloFresh's 50% market share provides economies of scale in ingredient sourcing and logistics, but can't overcome the fundamental question: do enough customers value cooking guidance over time savings to sustain a €7+ billion business?