General Electric Aviation
Aviation engine maker with $149 billion backlog managing LEAP production bottleneck while services revenue projects doubling to $20 billion by 2030.
GE Aerospace generated $38.7 billion in revenue for 2024 (up 9% year-over-year) with a profit margin of 19.7%, but the company's metabolic reality centers on a single constraint: LEAP engine production. The backlog exceeded 10,000 units in July 2024, with CFM International (the GE-Safran joint venture) delivering 1,407 LEAP engines in 2024—a figure that must reach approximately 1,688 in 2025 to satisfy the projected 20% increase. This bottleneck drives every strategic decision. The company announced a $1 billion U.S. manufacturing investment in 2025, nearly doubling prior-year spend, aimed at stabilizing supply chains and increasing output of LEAP and GE9X components. In Q3 2025, CFM shipped 511 LEAPs (40% more than Q3 2024), demonstrating that production acceleration is physically achievable, but sustained output requires coordination across thousands of suppliers—a problem biologists would recognize as trophic cascade management.
The LEAP engine represents keystone species dynamics in aerospace: a single product whose performance dictates ecosystem health across airlines, airframe manufacturers, and maintenance networks. Each engine generates decades of aftermarket revenue—GE projects commercial engine services revenue will double from $10 billion in 2024 to $20 billion by 2030. This isn't growth; it's the delayed payoff from installed base accumulation. The company's total order backlog of $149 billion in Q3 2024 (90% services) represents future metabolic needs already committed. Airlines can't switch engine suppliers mid-lifecycle, so every LEAP delivered locks in 30+ years of maintenance, parts, and overhaul revenue—the biological equivalent of mutualism.
Yet production constraints reveal fragility. GE updated 2025 full-year guidance to $8.65-$8.85 billion in operating profit (up from $8.2-$8.5 billion) and raised 2028 projections to $11.5 billion (from $10 billion). These revisions reflect confidence that supply chain stabilization will proceed on schedule. But the aerospace ecosystem operates with near-zero redundancy: Boeing's production issues ripple directly into GE engine demand, while airframe delays mean engines sit in inventory consuming working capital. GE's strong Q2 2025 results (over 20% growth across key metrics) demonstrate system performance when everything aligns. The test comes when multiple nodes fail simultaneously—when supplier insolvency, quality escapes, or airframe delays compound. GE Aerospace isn't vulnerable to competition; it's vulnerable to coordination failures in a system with no backup pathways.