Coinbase

Coinbase doubled revenue to $6.6 billion in 2024 while transforming from pure transaction exchange to diversified infrastructure platform—a textbook case of phenotypic plasticity under environmental volatility. When crypto winter hit 2022-2023, most exchanges contracted or died. Coinbase survived by reshaping its metabolic profile: transaction revenue fell from 96% of total in 2020 to 59% in 2025, replaced by subscription services, stablecoin interest, and custody fees worth $2.3 billion. This isn't pivot theater—it's adaptive radiation into adjacent niches when the primary food source dries up.

The company's 2025 S&P 500 inclusion marks a phase transition from speculative asset to institutional infrastructure. Network effects compound brutally in custody: holding 12% of all bitcoin creates gravitational pull for institutions who need scale, security, and regulatory clarity. Each new institution that chooses Coinbase custody makes the next decision easier—positive feedback loops that turn market share into moat. Transaction volume surged 130% post-election on crypto-friendly regulatory signals, proving the business remains exquisitely sensitive to environmental conditions.

What separates Coinbase from extinct competitors isn't superior technology—it's regulatory fitness. While Binance paid $4.3 billion in fines and FTX collapsed into fraud, Coinbase invested in compliance infrastructure during the boom years. That's the bdelloid rotifer strategy: build protective mechanisms when times are good so you survive when conditions turn hostile. The company's evolution from Bitcoin-only exchange (2012) to everything exchange offering tokenized securities, derivatives, and prediction markets follows adaptive radiation logic: once you dominate the core niche, expand into adjacent territories before competitors arrive. Revenue diversification plus regulatory moat plus network effects equals survival through volatility.