Carlsberg Group

Carlsberg's 2024 results reveal an organism in controlled expansion: DKK 75 billion in revenue ($10 billion), 125.7 million hectolitres of volume, and operating profit up 6% despite shedding its Russian business and absorbing the complexity of acquiring Britvic (completed January 2025). The Danish brewer—world's fifth-largest by revenue, third by volume—operates like a mycorrhizal network, maintaining dominant positions in 21 countries while extending hyphae into new territories. Its 2024 strategy involved four major reconfigurations: acquiring Marston's 40% shareholding in Carlsberg Marston's, gaining full control of operations in India and Nepal, disposing of Russian assets, and absorbing Britvic's soft drinks business (which contributed DKK 7.3 billion in revenue and DKK 844 million in operating profit in H1 2025 alone).

This isn't simple geographic expansion—it's strategic niche construction. In India, Carlsberg holds roughly 21% national market share but commands 60% in states where it actively operates, demonstrating the keystone species effect: presence in a habitat fundamentally alters competitive dynamics. The company's growth categories performed predictably in 2024: premium beer +2%, alcohol-free +6%, Beyond Beer +5%, soft drinks +1%. These incremental gains compound when spread across massive volume, but they also reveal resource allocation under constraint. Organic volume growth dropped 1.7% in H1 2025, driven by losing the San Miguel UK license and weaker Asian/French demand. The company projects 1-5% organic operating profit growth for 2025, absorbing a 2-3 percentage point drag from the San Miguel loss.

Carlsberg's model mirrors the adaptive radiation of cichlids in isolated lakes: once a population establishes dominance in a territory, it diversifies into adjacent niches (premium, alcohol-free, soft drinks) rather than competing for share in saturated markets. The Britvic acquisition exemplifies mutualism at scale—Carlsberg gains soft drinks distribution infrastructure, Britvic products access brewing scale. Yet every symbiosis has metabolic costs. Integrating Britvic while managing decline in China and absorbing San Miguel's UK exit tests the organization's homeostatic capacity. The company's EBITDA of DKK 15.8 billion ($2.12 billion) suggests healthy margins, but margin compression will occur if volume declines persist while fixed costs from acquisitions accumulate. Carlsberg isn't struggling—it's navigating the tradeoff between territorial expansion and metabolic efficiency.