BlackBerry
In 2008, BlackBerry had an $84 billion market cap and 20% of the global smartphone market.
In 2008, BlackBerry had an $84 billion market cap and 20% of the global smartphone market. By 2016, less than 1% market share and $3 billion market cap. Co-CEO Jim Balsillie's response to the iPhone launch captured the denial: 'It's like one more entrant into an already very busy space... a sea-change for BlackBerry? I would think that's overstating it.'
BlackBerry treated a permanent market shift as temporary scarcity. The company dismissed the iPhone as a toy, doubled down on physical keyboards, and spent $1+ billion developing BlackBerry 10 OS - launching three years too late. This is the catastrophic failure to recognize when hibernation is inappropriate. Hibernation works for winters that end, not ice ages. The iPhone wasn't a winter to wait out - it was climate change.
BlackBerry had rigid membranes that preserved identity during growth but became barriers to necessary adaptation when technology changed. Physical keyboards weren't a feature preference - they were an existential commitment the company couldn't abandon. When environments shift, the mechanisms that once protected you can become the chains that kill you.
Key Leaders at BlackBerry
Jim Balsillie
Co-CEO (1992-2012)
Exemplified denial of permanent market shift, dismissing iPhone as temporary threat
Cautionary Notes on BlackBerry
- Assumed physical keyboards were permanent
- Ignored touchscreen technology
- Rigid membrane prevented adaptation to touchscreen smartphone era
- Treated permanent market shift as temporary scarcity
- Failed to recognize when hibernation was inappropriate
- Doubled down on declining competitive advantage (physical keyboards)
- Launched touchscreen platform three years too late
BlackBerry Appears in 3 Chapters
BlackBerry collapsed by assuming physical keyboards were permanent and ignoring the touchscreen cycle shift - a failure case for climate cycle recognition.
BlackBerry's climate cycle blindness →BlackBerry's rigid membranes preserved identity during growth but became barriers to adaptation when technology changed - unable to abandon physical keyboards.
How BlackBerry's membranes killed it →BlackBerry treated permanent market shift (iPhone/touchscreens) as temporary scarcity, spending $1B+ on BlackBerry 10 OS three years too late.
BlackBerry's failed hibernation strategy →