A new evolutionary law
Species must continuously adapt to maintain relative fitness as others adapt
Van Valen's Red Queen hypothesis transformed understanding of competitive dynamics in both biology and business. Named after Lewis Carroll's Through the Looking-Glass ('It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place'), it explains why species must continually adapt just to maintain their relative fitness.
For business strategy, the Red Queen hypothesis reveals why competitive advantages are often temporary: as competitors adapt, standing still means falling behind. This insight underpins the chapter's analysis of Intel-AMD, Boeing-Airbus, and cybersecurity arms races.
Key Findings from Valen & Van Valen (1973)
- Species must continuously adapt to maintain relative fitness as others adapt
- Standing still (not evolving) means falling behind in fitness
- Explains maintenance of sexual reproduction despite its twofold cost
- Predicts perpetual evolutionary change rather than stable equilibria
- Extinction probability remains constant regardless of species age
- Past survival provides no protection against future extinction
- Continuous evolutionary arms races drive constant adaptation
- Species must constantly evolve just to maintain relative fitness
- Past success is irrelevant to future survival
- Continuous evolutionary arms races explain constant extinction risk
- Named after Lewis Carroll's Red Queen: 'It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place'
- Species must continuously evolve to maintain relative fitness
- Neither predator nor prey gains permanent advantage
- Arms races produce increasingly sophisticated adaptations
- Continuous evolution required just to 'stay in place'
Used in 4 chapters
See how this research informs the book's frameworks:
Explains Intel-AMD and Boeing-Airbus competitive dynamics where continuous adaptation is required just to maintain relative position.
See coevolutionary arms races →Demonstrates why past success provides no protection - your market leadership and track record don't reduce extinction risk.
See selection pressure dynamics →Foundational paper establishing that extinction probability remains constant regardless of species age - continuous adaptation is mandatory.
See natural selection fundamentals →Explains why evolutionary arms races produce increasingly sophisticated adaptations without either side 'winning.'
See predator-prey dynamics →