Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Rigorous research on what distinguishes accurate forecasters from everyone else
"The humility required for good judgment is not self-doubt—the sense that you are untalented, unintelligent, or unworthy. It is intellectual humility."
— Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner
My Review
Tetlock's research on what makes forecasters accurate maps directly to environmental sensing in biology. Superforecasters are essentially organisms with superior signal detection capabilities - they separate noise from signal more effectively. The emphasis on updating beliefs and calibration is pure adaptive behavior.
Why It Matters
Organizations need accurate environmental sensing to survive. Tetlock's research shows that forecasting accuracy is a learnable skill, not a gift, and identifies the specific practices that improve prediction.
Key Ideas
- Some people are genuinely better at forecasting - and the skill can be learned
- Superforecasters think in probabilities and update frequently
- The foxes (know many things) outperform hedgehogs (know one big thing)
- Calibration - matching confidence to accuracy - is key
How It Connects to This Framework
Book 1's Environmental Sensing chapter draws on Tetlock's signal detection framework. The concept of calibrated uncertainty appears throughout the decision-making content.
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The full Biology of Business book explores these concepts in depth with practical frameworks.