Kelp

Kelp forests along temperate coastlines exist in one of two alternative stable states: lush underwater forests supporting dense biological communities, or barren seafloor dominated by sea urchins. Once established, each state resists transition to the other through self-reinforcing feedback. In kelp-dominated states, the three-dimensional forest structure provides habitat for fish and invertebrates that prey on juvenile urchins, keeping urchin populations in check and allowing kelp to persist. The kelp forest's stability is an emergent property not present in individual kelp plants.

But when sea otter populations decline - whether from hunting, disease, or environmental change - sea urchin populations explode. Urchins devastate kelp forests, consuming them down to bare rock. This creates cascading habitat loss across entire ecosystems. The urchin barren state becomes stable because without kelp structure, the predators that controlled urchins lose their habitat and cannot reestablish. The system demonstrates threshold effects: small changes in otter populations trigger catastrophic regime shifts between stable states.

The business insight: ecosystems can exist in multiple stable configurations, and transitions between them aren't gradual - they're threshold-driven collapses. Trying to maintain modularity (kelp production as separate from predator populations) misses the interconnected reality. When keystone components fail, entire systems reconfigure into alternative stable states that resist restoration.