Self-Thinning Law
Of 1,000 startups that launch, fewer than 5 reach sustainable scale - 99.5% mortality rate.
You can have many small plants or few large plants, but not both. Early growth is when the population filters from thousands to tens.
As plants grow, density decreases predictably. Start with 10,000 seedlings per hectare - after 10 years: 1,000; after 50 years: 100; after 100 years: 30 trees. Every time average plant size doubles, about two-thirds die. Ecologists express this as: log(density) = -3/2 × log(mass) + constant. This -3/2 self-thinning law is one of the most robust patterns in ecology, observed across hundreds of species. Early growth is when most elimination happens - first 5 years kill 90-95% of seedlings.
Business Application of Self-Thinning Law
Of 1,000 startups that launch, fewer than 5 reach sustainable scale - 99.5% mortality rate. Most elimination happens early. The survivors aren't the best ideas or best funded - they're the ones that navigated resource allocation, competition, and environmental threats during the most vulnerable period.