Risk-Sensitive Foraging
Startups with short runway should make risky bets; those with long runway should optimize safely.
When facing starvation, safe strategies guarantee death. Risky strategies give survival chance. 50% > 0%.
Risk-sensitive foraging theory explains why organisms switch between risk-averse and risk-seeking strategies based on energy reserves. When well-fed (reserves adequate), animals choose safe, predictable food sources. When starving (reserves below survival threshold), they choose risky, variable sources. This isn't recklessness - it's rational recalibration. Juncos in winter forage in safe, low-quality patches when fed reliably, but switch to risky, high-quality exposed areas when food-deprived. At 80 calories with 100 needed for survival, the safe patch (guaranteed 90) delivers 0% survival; the risky patch (50% chance of 200) delivers 50% survival.
Business Application of Risk-Sensitive Foraging
Startups with short runway should make risky bets; those with long runway should optimize safely. When reserves fall below survival threshold, 'risky' becomes 'rational' because safe strategies guarantee death while risky strategies give survival probability.