Defection Detection and Punishment
Detection lag determines coalition stability.
Coalitions require cheater detection and punishment. When detection lags and punishment is costly, defection becomes rational and coalition collapses gradually.
OPEC demonstrates 'slow-motion coalition failure': The 3-month detection lag fundamentally changes defection incentives. If defection were detected immediately, the defector would be punished instantly - zero net gain. But the 3-month lag means the defector enjoys 3 months of unpunished advantage ($3.6B in additional revenue at typical violation rates).
The temporal structure makes defection rational even when punishment is certain: Gains are immediate and certain (extra $40M per day starts flowing instantly), Punishment is distant and uncertain (3 months away, requires coalition consensus), Humans heavily discount future costs relative to immediate gains.
Business Application of Defection Detection and Punishment
Detection lag determines coalition stability. OPEC's 3-month detection lag for quota violations creates $3.6B unpunished gain per violation, making defection rational. If OPEC had weekly meetings with real-time monitoring, the $3.6B gain would become $200M - dramatically weakening defection incentive. Coalitions must minimize detection lag through real-time monitoring systems.