Credibility Collapse
Organizational alarm systems must maintain >90% true positive rate.
Your alarm system's credibility collapses below 90% honesty. Like the boy who cried wolf, once false alarms exceed 10%, people stop responding - and the next real threat kills you.
When alarm calls are frequently dishonest (false positives), receivers habituate and stop responding. This is the 'boy who cried wolf' dynamic: early false alarms are heeded, later false alarms are ignored, and when a genuine threat appears, no one responds.
The system's value depends on maintaining high signal honesty (>90% true alarms). Tufted capuchin monkeys who produce false alarms to scatter competitors are eventually recognized and ignored. Great tit false alarm frequency remains below 5% because higher rates destroy the system's utility. Deception is frequency-dependent and self-limiting: too much dishonesty destroys the alarm system, harming both honest and dishonest signalers.
Business Application of Credibility Collapse
Organizational alarm systems must maintain >90% true positive rate. Too many false alarms create fatigue and genuine threats are ignored (BP Deepwater Horizon). Too many false security claims create credibility collapse when breaches occur (Equifax). Trust, once lost, is nearly impossible to recover.