Lusaka
First African country to default on sovereign debt — copper generates 70% of exports, and the same metal trapping Zambia in dependency now attracts green-transition FDI.
Zambia became the first African country to default on its sovereign debt during the Covid-19 pandemic — brought down not by a novel virus but by the commodity that has defined its economy since the 1920s: copper. Lusaka, the capital of 2.4 million people at 1,277 metres on the central plateau, administers a country where copper generates over 70% of export earnings, 62% of the population lives on less than $2 a day, and debt reached 120% of GDP before restructuring began.
Lusaka is the administrative centre of a copper monoculture that has survived one century without diversifying. When copper prices fell in the 2010s, the government maintained popular support through Chinese loan-funded infrastructure expansion, accumulating over $10 billion in Chinese debt — among the highest per capita in Africa. The infrastructure projects failed to generate sustained growth. By 2020, public debt hit $35 billion and Zambia couldn't service obligations exceeding 50% of public revenue.
By 2020, public debt hit $35 billion and Zambia couldn't service obligations exceeding 50% of public revenue.
The March 2024 restructuring deal required bondholders to write off $840 million. Yet the underlying vulnerability remains: copper prices still determine whether Zambia grows or contracts. The 2024 drought — which cut GDP growth from a projected 4.2% to 2.3% — demonstrated that even climate now compounds the copper risk. A counterpoint emerged in 2024: FDI surged 1,340% to $1.24 billion, ranking Zambia first in Africa for FDI growth, driven by renewed interest in copper mining for green energy transitions.
The same metal that trapped Zambia in a century of dependency may now attract investment for electric vehicle batteries and wind turbines. This is the paradox of keystone-species economics: the resource that makes the ecosystem vulnerable is also the resource that makes it indispensable. Copper in Zambia operates like a keystone predator — its presence structures the entire economy, and its price fluctuations cascade through every sector, from government wages to school enrolment to hospital funding.