Western Sahara
Spain's 1975 withdrawal triggered Morocco's occupation (85% of territory); Bou Craa phosphate mine and fishing sustain economy as international recognition of Moroccan control grows.
Western Sahara is a territory where economics and sovereignty cannot be separated: Morocco controls 85% of the land, extracts the resources, and increasingly wins international recognition for its position, while the Polisario Front claims independence from exile and the UN maintains that the question remains unresolved.
Spain colonized the territory in the 1880s, drawn by fishing grounds and later by phosphate deposits discovered in the 1940s. The Bou Craa mine, developed in the 1960s, sits atop one of the world's largest phosphate reserves. A 98-kilometer conveyor belt—the world's longest—carries ore from the mine to the coast for export.
When Spain withdrew in 1975, Morocco and Mauritania divided the territory. The Polisario Front, backed by Algeria, fought both. Mauritania withdrew in 1979; Morocco built a 2,700-kilometer sand wall (the "berm") separating territories it controlled from Polisario-held desert. The UN-brokered ceasefire of 1991 promised a referendum on self-determination that has never occurred.
The economic structure within Moroccan-controlled territory is straightforward: phosphate mining at Bou Craa, fishing along the Atlantic coast employing roughly two-thirds of the workforce, and state subsidies that have attracted Moroccan settlers as part of a colonization policy. The economy functions as an extension of Morocco, with Rabat providing infrastructure, services, and employment.
International legal challenges have had limited effect. In October 2024, the EU Court of Justice annulled trade and fisheries agreements with Morocco that applied to Western Sahara, ruling that Sahrawi consent had not been obtained. Yet political momentum trends toward Moroccan recognition. The UK endorsed Morocco's autonomy plan as "most credible" in June 2025. The US recognized Moroccan sovereignty in 2020. The UN Security Council's October 2025 resolution was interpreted as supportive of Morocco's position.
Phosphate reserves, while significant, represent less than 2% of Morocco's total proven holdings. The symbolic value of the territory—completing Morocco's map, denying Algeria a client state on its border—may exceed the economic value.
By 2026, Western Sahara's trajectory is gradual normalization of Moroccan control. Each country that recognizes Morocco's sovereignty makes the Polisario's position more marginal. The legal status remains contested; the practical reality is that Morocco governs the territory, extracts its resources, and controls its future. The referendum the UN promised will likely never happen.