Wallis and Futuna
French protectorate since 1842 with 70% public sector employment; population fell 25% since 2003 as youth leave, with French subsidies sustaining remaining 11,000 residents.
Wallis and Futuna represents French overseas presence at its most vestigial: two volcanic island groups with 11,000 people, sustained almost entirely by French budget transfers, experiencing population decline as young people leave for opportunities that the islands cannot provide.
The archipelago became a French protectorate in 1842, following missionary activity that had converted the population to Catholicism. Unlike larger French Pacific territories, Wallis and Futuna never developed export agriculture, mining, or tourism at scale. The traditional economy—coconut, taro, yam cultivation, pig husbandry, and fishing—supported subsistence but not commerce.
French administration formalized in 1961 when the territory voted overwhelmingly to become an overseas collectivity rather than pursue independence. The decision made economic sense: France provides recurrent budget support covering education, healthcare, and government salaries. Approximately 70% of the employed labor force works in the public sector.
The private economy is minimal. Fishing—primarily for local consumption with some license revenue from foreign vessels—and small-scale agriculture constitute most activity. There is no manufacturing, no significant tourism infrastructure, and no export sector. Copra production, once the main commercial activity, has declined to negligible levels.
Population decline tells the story. From 14,944 in 2003 to 11,151 in 2023—a 25% drop in two decades. Almost no one aged 18-30 remains on the islands. Young people leave for New Caledonia, French Polynesia, or metropolitan France, seeking education and employment that the territory cannot offer. The schools they attended close; the villages they left depopulate.
In 2025, the Catholic Church ended its management of primary education, transferring schools to state control for the first time since 1969. This administrative change signals broader decline: the church that once provided social cohesion faces the same demographic pressures as everything else.
French subsidies maintain the current equilibrium. The Girardin Law promoting investment in overseas territories extends through 2025. But investment incentives mean little when there's no private economy to invest in.
By 2026, Wallis and Futuna's trajectory is managed depopulation. The islands will remain French, continue receiving transfers, and gradually empty as each generation leaves. This isn't crisis but structural adjustment to realities that no policy can change: French Pacific wages can't be earned on islands with no productive economy.