Uzbekistan
Soviet cotton monoculture under Karimov (1991-2016) gave way to rapid liberalization; WTO accession negotiations aim to integrate Central Asia's largest population into global trade rules.
Uzbekistan spent its first decades of independence under a dictator who resisted reform, then pivoted sharply toward liberalization after his death—an economic transformation now culminating in WTO accession negotiations that would integrate Central Asia's most populous nation into global trade rules.
The territory's economic geography has been defined for millennia by the Silk Road cities—Samarkand, Bukhara, Khiva—that linked Chinese manufactures to Mediterranean markets. Soviet rule transformed this trading position into cotton monoculture: the Aral Sea's feeder rivers were diverted for irrigation, producing cotton for Soviet textile mills while destroying one of the world's largest inland seas.
Independence in 1991 under Islam Karimov brought authoritarian continuity rather than reform. State-controlled agriculture continued; currency convertibility was restricted; foreign investment faced barriers. The cotton system persisted, including forced labor during harvest season that drew international condemnation. Uzbekistan remained isolated from global trade and investment flows that transformed neighboring Kazakhstan.
Karimov's death in 2016 brought unexpected change. His successor, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, initiated rapid liberalization: currency reform (the som became convertible), privatization of state enterprises, relaxation of border controls, and abolition of forced labor in cotton fields. Foreign investment grew from essentially zero to significant flows in textiles, mining, and agriculture.
The WTO accession process, launched in earnest after 2020, represents the culmination of this opening. Membership would require tariff reductions, regulatory transparency, and dispute resolution mechanisms that bind the government to international rules. For a country that ran as a closed economy for 25 years, this represents fundamental restructuring.
Agriculture is diversifying beyond cotton. Fruits, vegetables, and textiles for export replace the monoculture model. Gold mining—Uzbekistan holds significant deposits at Muruntau, one of the world's largest open-pit gold mines—generates substantial export revenue. Remittances from workers in Russia and Kazakhstan supplement domestic income.
The 2025 challenge is managing transition without triggering the instability that liberalization can create. Subsidies must decline; state enterprises must become efficient or close; employment must shift from protected sectors to competitive ones. The population of 35 million—Central Asia's largest—provides both a workforce and a political constraint.
By 2026, WTO negotiations will likely conclude, with membership potentially following by 2027. Whether Uzbekistan can integrate into global trade while maintaining political stability will determine whether the post-Karimov opening proves durable or reverses under pressure. The Silk Road cities once connected worlds; WTO membership would reconnect Uzbekistan to a global economy its Soviet and post-Soviet rulers deliberately avoided.