U.S. Virgin Islands
Record tourism recovery (2.7M visitors 2024) masks 18% population loss and refinery contamination; rum cover-over and federal recovery funds sustain economy while workforce shortage blocks reconstruction.
The US Virgin Islands presents a case study in compound shocks and incomplete recovery. Hurricanes Irma and Maria struck in 2017. The Hovensa oil refinery—once the largest in the Western Hemisphere—closed permanently. The population fell 18% between 2010 and 2020, from 106,000 to 87,000. St. Croix's poverty rate sits at 25%, more than double the US mainland average, with cost of living 19% higher.
Tourism has recovered: 2.7 million visitors in 2024 set a record. Government spending and the rum industry provide the remaining economic support. The Rum Cover-Over—federal excise taxes returned to territorial governments—delivers essential revenue at $13.25 per proof gallon. Cruzan and Diageo's Captain Morgan distillery together produce over 21 million proof gallons annually.
The Limetree Bay refinery, renamed Port Hamilton, represents the territory's most contentious economic prospect. The facility briefly reopened in 2021 to produce marine fuel, processing 210,000 barrels daily, before EPA ordered shutdown after pollution contaminated nearby homes and drinking water. Governor Bryan's 2025 agenda pushes for a "SAFE restart" that could generate $400 million annually and create 400 jobs—but chemical remediation continues.
The deeper challenge is workforce. Over 1,500 federally funded recovery projects demand skilled labor that exceeds local capacity. The proposed visa waiver program would allow short-term workers from neighboring Caribbean nations—acknowledging that the USVI needs people even as residents continue leaving.