New York

New York demonstrates the paradox of financial-sector dominance: Wall Street's record $60+ billion profits in 2025 coexist with an economy "treading water" that added only 40,000 jobs against a forecast of 150,000. The securities industry showed a 40% profit increase between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025, with Q4 2024 pre-tax profits reaching $14.3 billion—a 129.7% jump from the prior year. This concentration of wealth generation in a single sector creates massive tax revenue (up 35% in 2024) but limited employment expansion.

The bifurcation reveals a two-track economy. Job growth concentrated in government and healthcare—both publicly funded—while private sectors stagnated. Yet New York outperforms peer cities in one crucial metric: office occupancy. Workers returned more than in any other major city, driving vacancy rates down to 15%, far better than Chicago, San Francisco, or Boston. This return-to-office culture suggests the agglomeration effects that made Wall Street dominant still function, even as broader employment languishes.

The 37.9% growth in the 2024-2025 bonus pool will generate tax revenue windfalls supporting both state and city budgets, but economists warn the boom depends heavily on AI-related stocks and dealmaking—sectors that could correct sharply. New York's position as America's financial apex predator means outsized gains when markets surge but concentrated exposure to any downturn. The state's economy doesn't diversify; it intensifies, betting ever more heavily on the information asymmetries and deal flows that have made it dominant for a century.