Illinois

Illinois demonstrates what happens when an economic apex predator loses its hunting grounds. The state's GDP fell 2.2% in early 2025—more than four times the national decline of 0.5%—while Chicago's business barometer registered contraction for 24 consecutive months through November 2025. Since 2020, the state has hemorrhaged at least 10 major headquarters: Caterpillar, Boeing, Tyson, TTX, and Citadel among them. Each departure removes jobs directly while signaling to other firms that the ecosystem is failing.

The manufacturing sector, once Illinois's economic backbone, continues a long-run decline that short-lived resurgences cannot reverse. Manufacturing jobs fell by 5,800 while professional and business services shed 15,000 positions. Moody's Analytics projects that Illinois will underperform both the region and the nation in 2025 across GDP, employment, and income. CNBC ranks Illinois seventh-most at-risk in a recession, citing high pension liabilities, trade war exposure, and the lowest-in-the-nation credit ratings.

Chicago's 4.7% unemployment rate exceeds the national average, but the real concern is structural: payroll employment has been flat for eighteen months, with finance and professional services actively contracting. Analysts note the troubling lack of opportunities for residents without strong educational credentials, particularly in urban areas with large working-class Black and Latino populations. Illinois isn't experiencing a temporary downturn—it's watching path-dependent advantages accumulated over a century slowly drain away to states with lower costs, fewer pension obligations, and more welcoming regulatory environments.