Great Plains

Thirty million bison became fewer than 500 in fifteen years. The Great Plains witnessed the fastest large-mammal collapse in recorded history between 1870 and 1884, when commercial hunters—enabled by new tanning technology and railroad access—reduced the American bison to functional extinction. What followed was not recovery, but a sequence of unstable replacement states, each promising permanence and each collapsing in turn. The Great Plains has rebuilt itself twice in 150 years; the third collapse is now visible on the calendar.

The grassland ecosystem that European settlers encountered had been engineered by three forces operating in concert for ten thousand years: bison grazing, Indigenous fire management, and the deep-rooted shortgrass prairie itself. Bison maintained the prairie's mosaic structure through selective grazing and wallowing—their depressions collected rainwater for amphibians, their trails created corridors for pronghorn. Prairie dogs served as secondary engineers, their burrow networks aerating soil and creating habitat for burrowing owls, black-footed ferrets, and rattlesnakes. When the bison vanished and prairie dog populations crashed by 98%, the keystone architecture of the ecosystem collapsed.

The First Replacement: Cattle and Wheat

Cattle ranchers and wheat farmers rushed into the vacuum. The Homestead Act of 1862 had already begun partitioning the commons, but bison removal accelerated the conversion. Between 1880 and 1930, settlers plowed under 33 million acres of native grassland. Turkey Red wheat, introduced by Mennonite immigrants from Ukraine in the 1870s, transformed Kansas into a breadbasket. World War I wheat prices quadrupled, encouraging farmers to tear up every remaining acre of sod.

This was ecological hubris mistaken for progress. The shortgrass prairie evolved deep root systems because the region receives only 15-20 inches of annual rainfall and experiences decade-long drought cycles. When the 1930s drought arrived, the naked soil had no defenses. Dust storms reached 10,000 feet and transported 1.2 billion tons of topsoil—some of it deposited on ships 300 miles into the Atlantic. The Dust Bowl displaced 2.5 million people, the largest involuntary migration in American history.

The Second Replacement: The Ogallala Bargain

The Ogallala recharges at roughly half an inch per year. Farmers withdraw 18 inches annually. This is not a water management problem; it is a countdown.

The 1940s brought center-pivot irrigation and access to the Ogallala Aquifer—a 174,000-square-mile underground reservoir accumulated over millions of years. This enabled a third stable state: high-yield irrigated agriculture producing corn, soybeans, and feed crops for expanding cattle feedlots. Kansas and Nebraska became the cattle capitals of America.

The mathematics are terminal. Since 1950, pumping has reduced the aquifer's volume by 9%. In parts of western Kansas, groundwater dropped 1.5 feet between 2024 and 2025 alone. Kansas Governor Laura Kelly warned that some areas lack groundwater for another 25 years. State projections suggest 52% of accessible water will be gone by 2060. The Texas Panhandle has already lost 30% of its usable supply. Once depleted, the aquifer will take 6,000 years to refill naturally.

Present State

The Great Plains encompasses 500,000 square miles across ten states. Despite losing a third of its rural population since 1920—with some counties shedding 80% of their residents—the region produces 15% of America's wheat, 25% of its corn, and nearly half its cattle. Kansas saw 9.7% GDP growth in Q3 2023, the fastest in the nation, driven almost entirely by agriculture. But the wind that once carried Dust Bowl topsoil now powers over 50% of electricity in Kansas, Iowa, and South Dakota—the region has become the Saudi Arabia of wind energy.

2026 Trajectory

The Great Plains faces its third phase transition in 150 years. A Kansas law requires groundwater management districts to submit stabilization plans by July 2026 or face mandatory pumping cuts of 17.5%. The American Prairie Reserve is attempting to restore bison herds across 3.2 million Montana acres—though federal grazing permits were revoked in late 2025. Whether the region manages a gradual shift to dryland agriculture and renewable energy, or triggers another exodus when the water runs out, depends on choices made in the next decade. History offers its verdict: boom, overshoot, collapse, replacement. The third cycle has begun.