Uganda

Uganda built an agricultural economy that survived colonialism, was destroyed by dictatorship, rebuilt through reform, and now faces transformation as oil enters production—testing whether the country can avoid the resource curse that has damaged every neighbor.

The British protectorate declared in 1893 had a specific purpose: draw Uganda into the global economy to supply raw materials for British textile mills. Cotton cultivation began in 1904, and once plantation economics proved unworkable, colonial officials encouraged smallholder production through cooperative associations. By 1910, cotton had become the leading export. By 1914, cotton earnings allowed Uganda to become independent of British Treasury grants—rare among African territories.

Coffee followed after World War II, introduced to bolster declining export revenues. The pattern of peasant smallholdings and local marketing cooperatives that had worked for cotton transferred successfully to coffee. By the 1950s, coffee earned more than half of export revenue. The structure—small farmers, cooperatives, modest state involvement—created a reasonably prosperous agricultural economy at independence in 1962.

Idi Amin destroyed it. The 1971 military coup brought a regime that combined paranoia with economic destruction. In 1972, Amin expelled approximately 70,000 Asians of Indian and Pakistani descent—the entrepreneurial class that dominated agribusiness, manufacturing, and commerce. Their mass expulsion collapsed investor confidence. By 1979, when Tanzania's invasion finally removed Amin, GDP measured only 80% of its 1970 level. A record 14.8% decline occurred between 1978 and 1980.

Museveni's National Resistance Army seized power in 1986 and initiated recovery. IMF structural adjustment, privatization, and gradual liberalization restored growth. Coffee exports resumed. Foreign investment returned cautiously. The economy grew at 6-7% annually through the 1990s and 2000s—one of Africa's sustained success stories.

Oil discovery in the Albertine Graben region changes the equation. Commercial quantities confirmed in 2006 promised eventual production. The $3.5 billion East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), running from western Uganda through Tanzania to the Indian Ocean port of Tanga, finally reached construction phase in 2024. First oil is expected by 2025-2026.

The challenge is managing the transition. Coffee still accounts for significant export earnings. Agriculture employs 72% of the workforce. The oil sector will create revenues but not mass employment. Museveni, in power since 1986, faces succession questions. The institutions that managed agricultural recovery must now manage resource wealth—a transition that has failed in Nigeria, South Sudan, and across the continent.

By 2026, oil production will begin reshaping Uganda's fiscal position. Whether this proves blessing or curse depends on governance choices made in the coming years. The agricultural economy that survived Amin won't survive irrelevance.