Trinidad and Tobago
Oil since 1857 and gas since 1970s peaked in 2005/2009; production halved while infrastructure ages, forcing diversification from Caribbean's highest per-capita income.
Trinidad and Tobago became the Caribbean's energy superpower through accident of geology—oil discovered in 1857, natural gas found a century later—and now faces the existential question all petrostates confront: what happens when the reserves decline faster than the alternatives develop?
Columbus sighted Trinidad in 1498; the Spanish held it for three centuries of minimal development. Britain seized the island in 1797, introduced sugar plantations worked by enslaved Africans, and after emancipation brought indentured laborers from India who now constitute the largest ethnic group. Tobago, a separate colony, was administratively joined to Trinidad in 1889. Independence came in 1962.
The oil industry preceded independence by a century. The Pitch Lake at La Brea—the world's largest natural asphalt deposit—had been exploited for waterproofing ships since the Spanish era. Commercial oil production began in 1857, making Trinidad one of the world's earliest petroleum producers. By independence, oil dominated the economy: refineries at Pointe-à-Pierre processed both domestic and imported crude.
Natural gas, discovered offshore in the 1970s, created a second act. Trinidad and Tobago developed substantial LNG export capacity, ammonia and methanol production, and petrochemical industries that leveraged cheap feedstock. At peak, the energy sector contributed 45% of GDP, 80% of exports, and the majority of government revenue. Per-capita income reached the highest in the Caribbean.
The decline began before anyone acknowledged it. Oil production peaked at 229,000 barrels per day in 2005; by March 2025, output had fallen below 90,000 bpd. Natural gas peaked at 4.5 billion cubic feet per day in 2009; by 2025, production had declined to 2.3 bcf/d. The Atlantic LNG plant at Point Fortin occasionally set monthly export records, but annual throughput depended on declining upstream supply.
The fiscal consequences are stark. The October 2025 budget projected oil revenue at $14.2 billion, down from $16.7 billion the previous year. GDP contracted an estimated 0.8% in 2025 after three years of growth. The Heritage and Stabilisation Fund—Trinidad's sovereign wealth vehicle—provides a buffer, but not an indefinite one.
Diversification attempts have shown modest success. Tourism, long neglected in favor of energy, is growing. The creative industries around Carnival generate some export revenue. Manufacturing exists but at small scale. Nothing approaches the revenue that oil and gas once provided.
By 2026, the offshore auction results will matter enormously. New discoveries from bp's Cypre field and other prospects could extend the energy era. Green hydrogen production—using natural gas to make ammonia without emissions—represents one transition pathway. But the infrastructure was built for volumes that no longer exist, and the population has expectations that declining revenue cannot sustain. The Caribbean's richest territory now confronts the possibility that its children will be poorer than their parents.