Tokelau

Tokelau holds an uncomfortable distinction: the world's smallest economy, generating less GDP than a single Manhattan city block, sustained almost entirely by New Zealand's budget support and fishing licenses from waters that vastly exceed its land area.

Three coral atolls totaling 10 square kilometers of dry land—Atafu, Nukunonu, and Fakaofo—rise barely 5 meters above sea level at their highest points. Approximately 1,500 people live on these atolls, though significantly more Tokelauans reside in New Zealand. The total land area is roughly equivalent to a large farm, but the exclusive economic zone surrounding the atolls extends to 319,000 square kilometers—a ratio of territory to ocean that defines everything about how Tokelau functions.

New Zealand annexed the islands in 1926, and they remain a dependent territory. But dependency understates the relationship: New Zealand provides approximately 80% of Tokelau's recurrent government budget, roughly $15 million annually. The Royal New Zealand Navy patrols the EEZ. Tokelau uses New Zealand currency, New Zealand-provided satellite internet, and New Zealand administrative systems.

The remaining 20% of revenue comes primarily from fishing licenses. The EEZ contains valuable tuna stocks, and the US South Pacific Tuna Treaty grants American vessels access in exchange for payments divided among 16 Pacific nations. Tokelau's share provides essential income—but when treaty disbursements were delayed in 2025, cash flow collapsed so completely that New Zealand had to provide advance payments to cover the gap.

Twice Tokelau has voted on self-determination—in 2006 and 2007—and twice rejected it. The votes weren't close: roughly two-thirds chose to remain a New Zealand territory. The calculation was straightforward: full sovereignty would mean full vulnerability, with no guarantee that New Zealand support would continue.

The atolls support subsistence fishing and coconut cultivation, but no commercial agriculture is viable at scale. There is no airport—access is by ship from Samoa, a journey of 24-48 hours. The population that remains depends on remittances from the larger Tokelauan diaspora.

Climate change adds existential urgency. At maximum elevation of 5 meters, Tokelau faces the same timeline as Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands. The self-determination process now underway isn't really about independence—it's about establishing legal frameworks for a population that may eventually need to relocate entirely.

By 2026, Tokelau's status may not have changed, but the questions intensify: How does a territory with no economy, no airport, and no land above storm surge level plan for a future in which the ocean rises and fish stocks migrate? The answer may be that the planning happens in Wellington, not on the atolls.