Serengeti Region

When rinderpest reduced the wildebeest population to 300,000 in the mid-twentieth century, fires consumed 80% of the ecosystem annually. The Serengeti became a net carbon source. After vaccination eliminated the disease and numbers recovered to 1.2 million, grazing suppressed fire and the ecosystem flipped to a carbon sink. Remove the wildebeest, and Africa's largest grassland becomes Africa's largest bonfire.

The Maasai called it 'siringet'—the place where the land goes on forever. For centuries before European contact, they moved livestock across these plains in seasonal rhythms that mirrored the wildebeest. The Berlin Conference of 1884-85 sliced their territory between British Kenya and German Tanganyika. When the British established a National Park in 1951, they expelled the Maasai entirely—creating the paradox that still defines the region: wildlife needs space without fences, but local communities bear the costs. Compensation for livestock kills covers less than 20% of actual losses.

The migration is a nutrient distribution machine. Each year, 250,000 wildebeest die during the 800-kilometer circuit—from thirst, exhaustion, crocodiles at the Mara River crossings, and predators like lions and hyenas tracking the herds. Mass drownings deposit 1,100 tons of biomass annually into aquatic food webs. Zebras lead the migration, eating the taller grasses to expose the shorter growth that wildebeest prefer—a mutualism that moves 1.5 million animals across borders that wildlife ignore but conservation agencies cannot. The 8,000 calves born daily during peak season dilute predator impact so thoroughly that most survive. This is the largest herbivore-driven trophic cascade ever documented.

Tanzania's tourism sector generates $3.9 billion annually, with Serengeti National Park drawing nearly 590,000 visitors. Entry fees run $70-83 per adult per day; concession fees add $71 per night. TANAPA operates without government subsidy—all revenue reinvests into anti-poaching and community programs. Successful conservation attracts more tourists, generating more funding for conservation. The model works while the migration survives.

The challenge is arithmetic. Tanzania's population is projected to reach 137 million by 2050, more than doubling from 57 million. Poaching has shifted from subsistence to commercial scale, with annual wildebeest offtake estimated at 97,000-140,000 animals. The number crossing into Kenya's Maasai Mara declined 73% between 1979 and 2016. The ecosystem that recovered from disease may not survive what happens when 137 million people need land.