Andalusia

Andalusia presents the paradox of demographic scale without commensurate prosperity. With 8.7 million inhabitants (17.8% of Spain's population), it is the country's largest region, yet its GDP per capita of €23,218 is Spain's lowest—25% below the national average. This gap between population weight and economic output creates dynamics similar to source-sink populations in ecology: talent and capital flow out while the region's scale attracts certain resource-dependent industries.

The region's €200 billion GDP (13.3% of Spain's total) depends heavily on tourism and agriculture, both sectors subject to environmental variability. Tourism is "reaching capacity limits" according to 2025 economic forecasts, while olive oil production—Spain leads global output—depends on increasingly unpredictable rainfall patterns. Exports grew 4.2% in 2024, driven by transport equipment and food products (oils, fruit, pulses), but industry remains weak compared to northern regions. Seville and Málaga drive employment growth, particularly in public sector, professional services, and commerce.

The 3.2% GDP growth forecast for 2025 (moderating to 2.3% in 2026) still exceeds historical averages, reflecting the post-pandemic tourism rebound. Yet structural constraints persist: affordable housing shortages, low productivity, labor gaps, and energy costs limit the conversion of population scale into economic convergence with wealthier Spanish regions. Andalusia's economic metabolism extracts value from sun, soil, and coastline—but these resources create seasonal, tourism-dependent growth patterns rather than diversified industrial strength.