South Sudan

South Sudan achieved independence in 2011 after decades of civil war against Khartoum, taking 75% of Sudan's oil reserves with it. What should have been the foundation for a prosperous new nation became instead a case study in how resource wealth without infrastructure creates dependence rather than sovereignty.

The geography of South Sudanese oil presents an inescapable problem. The reserves lie in the south, concentrated around Unity State and the contested Heglig field near the border. But there are no southern ports—South Sudan is landlocked, with no ocean access of its own. The only export route runs through two pipelines totaling 1,600 kilometers northward across Sudan to Port Sudan on the Red Sea. The nation that fought for independence from Khartoum remained utterly dependent on Khartoum to monetize its only significant asset.

This structural vulnerability met internal conflict almost immediately. Civil war erupted in December 2013, barely two years after independence, when President Salva Kiir accused Vice President Riek Machar of a coup attempt. The fighting that followed killed an estimated 400,000 people and displaced millions. Although a fragile peace was established in 2018, the fundamental political conflicts remained unresolved, and oil production—which had reached 350,000 barrels per day before independence—collapsed. By 2023, output hovered around 160,000 bpd, with over 90% of government revenue still coming from crude exports.

Then Sudan's own civil war detonated South Sudan's remaining economic foundations. When fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces erupted in April 2023, the conflict eventually reached Heglig. The RSF seized the strategic oil field, and the Dar Blend pipeline—carrying 63% of South Sudan's exports—shut down entirely. Production crashed from 160,000 to 60,000 barrels per day. The economy contracted 23.8% in 2025.

The humanitarian consequences were catastrophic. The World Food Programme estimates 60% of South Sudan's population faces acute food shortages. The World Bank finds nearly 80% living below the poverty line. International loans that had sustained government operations dried up. The young country faced an economic crisis without precedent in its brief history—not from its own mismanagement alone, but from infrastructure dependence on a neighbor now engulfed in war.

In December 2025, an extraordinary arrangement emerged: South Sudan deployed troops to Heglig under a security agreement with both Sudanese factions—the SAF and the RSF—to jointly protect oil infrastructure that all three parties needed. Production is restarting. But the fundamental vulnerability remains: every barrel of South Sudanese oil must still cross Sudanese territory, through pipelines controlled by parties who may resume fighting at any moment.

By 2026, South Sudan's trajectory depends entirely on Sudan's war. If the pipelines stay open, oil revenues can restart, though at diminished volumes and prices. If fighting resumes near Heglig or Port Sudan, the economy collapses again. The nation with oil wealth remains hostage to the nation it fled—a geographic trap that independence alone could not escape.