Lower Juba

Lower Juba controls Kismayo, one of Somalia's major ports and the economic heart of Jubaland federal member state. The port's strategic significance—handling exports, imports, and the charcoal trade that Al-Shabaab historically taxed—makes the region essential to both government revenue and insurgent financing.

The December 2024 clashes between the federal government and Jubaland erupted partly over Lower Juba's resources, the federal-state tensions that weaken coordinated counterinsurgency. Kismayo's relative security compared to other southern cities attracts commercial activity that conflict elsewhere displaces.

The Jubba River provides irrigation potential that proper investment could develop, the agricultural capacity that insecurity prevents from realization. Whether Lower Juba's port revenue can develop the surrounding region—or whether conflict continues preventing the infrastructure investment that would extend prosperity beyond Kismayo—tests whether strategic assets benefit local populations or merely attract competition for control.