Solomon Islands
Solomon Islands navigates great-power competition: China security pact (2022), $1.76B GDP, mining expected to double in 2025, but 75% workforce in subsistence, growth below targets.
Solomon Islands has become a focal point of Pacific great-power competition—the 2022 security agreement with China triggered intense US and Australian concern, illustrating how small nations can extract strategic rents from geopolitical rivalry. GDP reached $1.76 billion in 2024, with per capita growth projected at 1.0% for 2025 and 1.3% for 2026. Economic activity in H1 2025 was mixed: mining, agriculture, and services expanded while logging and fishing contracted. Copra, cocoa, and palm oil production rose by double digits, but gains were offset by sharp declines in logging—the historic mainstay now depleting. The government expects mining output to nearly double in 2025, with revisions to bauxite, gold, and nickel royalty arrangements underway. Between 2019 and 2024, external debt grew 129% and domestic debt 326%, driven by COVID-19 deficits and the 2023 Pacific Games investment. Growth remains far below the national strategy's 5% target for 2025 and 7% for 2030; IMF forecasts barely exceed 3% by 2029. Over 75% of the labor force remains in subsistence farming and fishing, with per capita GDP around $3,200. The economy is natural resource-rich but environmentally fragile, dependent on commodity exports to China, India, and Australia. Solomon Islands withdrew from the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative in 2018—a concerning signal for governance as mining expands.