Senegal

Senegal's 2024 represented a phase transition in West African political economy—new President Bassirou Diomaye Faye's April election and November parliamentary majority, combined with hydrocarbon production commencement, fundamentally altered the national trajectory. GDP grew 6.9% in 2024, up from 4.3% in 2023, with IMF projecting 10.1% in 2025—the world's fourth-fastest growth. The Sangomar offshore oil field exceeded first-year targets, producing 16.9 million barrels (vs. 11.7 million projected) and generating 595.5 billion FCFA in revenue. Woodside's project will contribute $1 billion annually over 30 years. The Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG venture with BP and Kosmos will produce 2.5 million tons annually. Faye launched 'Vision Senegal 2050' in October and pledged renegotiating hydrocarbon contracts while maintaining investor-friendly credentials. However, an audit revealed the actual 2024 deficit at 11% of GDP—double officially reported figures—triggering IMF renegotiation. Public debt doubled in a decade to 84.3% of GDP. The hydrocarbon windfall poses classic resource curse risk: Senegal must channel new revenues into diversification rather than consumption while managing expectations from a population that elected change-oriented leadership. This is economic metamorphosis in real-time—the question is whether institutional capacity can manage the transition responsibly.