Sao Tome and Principe

São Tomé and Príncipe represents a classic case of commodity dependence trap—cocoa comprises 95% of exports and 69% of merchandise trade, yet production has substantially declined from drought and mismanagement. GDP reached $760 million in 2024 with growth of merely 1.2%, following 0.5% in 2023, as prolonged power disruptions and global commodity price shocks from Russia's Ukraine invasion suppressed activity. Inflation remains elevated at 16.1% projected for 2024. The country graduates from least developed country status despite these challenges, a bittersweet transition that reduces access to preferential treatment. Foreign donors fund 90% of public investment, creating extreme source-sink dependency. The potential game-changer lies offshore: Gulf of Guinea oil reserves through a joint venture with Nigeria offer transformative revenue potential, though production timelines remain uncertain. Tourism struggles to gain traction as an alternative pillar. Import dependency for fuel, manufactured goods, and food amplifies vulnerability to external shocks. Fiscal deficit is projected at 3.3% of GDP in 2024, declining to 2.9% in 2025. Growth projected at 2.1% for 2025 remains anemic. This archipelago illustrates how small agricultural economies can become trapped between commodity collapse and hydrocarbon hopes—suspended in economic limbo while awaiting an oil windfall that may or may not materialize.