Saint Lucia

Saint Lucia exemplifies the classic Caribbean monoculture vulnerability pattern—tourism accounts for 65% of GDP, making the island an obligate symbiont with global travel demand. GDP growth reached 3.7% in 2024, up from 2.2% in 2023, driven by robust tourism recovery and construction investment. The 2024-25 budget celebrated record stayover arrivals and visitor spending. However, this success masks structural fragility: debt-to-GDP sits at 73.5%, well above CARICOM's 60% ceiling, while unemployment remains at 14% despite decade-low improvements. Nominal GDP is projected at $2.66 billion for 2025 with per capita income around $14,650. The IMF warns that medium-term growth is expected to slow to 1.5%, with risks tilted to the downside from investment delays, tourism dependence, global slowdowns, and climate vulnerability. As a CARICOM and OECS member, Saint Lucia participates in regional economic integration that provides some buffering through shared infrastructure and coordinated policy. Yet the fundamental carrying capacity constraint persists: small island economies cannot diversify sufficiently to escape tourism dependence. The economy demonstrates source-sink dynamics where prosperity depends entirely on continuous inflows of external visitors and capital—a dependency that climate change and pandemic risk make increasingly precarious.