Romania
Romania exhibits rapid EU convergence: per capita income from 26% to 78% of EU average (2000-2024), but 9.3% fiscal deficit in 2024 forces painful consolidation.
Romania achieved one of Europe's fastest convergences: per capita income rose from 26% of the EU average in 2000 to 78% by 2024, with nominal GDP reaching approximately $423 billion. The country joined the EU in 2007 and has maintained growth through IT services, manufacturing, and increasingly sophisticated industries. Private consumption, infrastructure spending, and EU-funded investment drive expansion.
Yet Romania operates with one of the EU's largest fiscal deficits—9.3% of GDP in 2024, projected to decline to 8.4% in 2025 only through multiple adjustment packages. The European Commission forecasts just 0.7% growth in 2025 as fiscal consolidation dampens consumption. Inflation reaccelerated to 8.6% in September 2025 after energy price caps ended and VAT rose. The Q3 2025 GDP contracted 0.2% quarter-over-quarter, signaling the consolidation's real economy impact.
The biological parallel is rapid growth outpacing metabolic capacity: Romania expanded faster than its fiscal institutions could sustain, accumulating deficits that now constrain future choices. Labor emigration—millions of Romanians work in Western Europe—creates skills shortages domestically while remittances support consumption. IT and manufacturing offer genuine competitive advantages; Bucharest hosts significant tech talent. But corruption and institutional weakness hinder efficiency. Romania demonstrates that EU convergence can be both rapid and fragile—economic catch-up is possible, yet fiscal sustainability requires discipline that political systems find difficult to maintain.