Republic of the Congo
Republic of the Congo exhibits mature oil field economics: 270,000 bpd from 1.8B barrel reserves, with majors exiting while independents revitalize aging fields.
The Republic of the Congo (Brazzaville) holds 1.8 billion barrels of oil reserves and ambitions to increase production from 270,000 barrels per day to 500,000—yet the economy posted modest 2.6% GDP growth in 2024, the first per capita income increase since 2016. Hydrocarbons account for 35% of GDP and 75% of exports, concentrating risk in commodity prices that fluctuate beyond the country's control. The African Development Bank had projected 4.3-4.4% growth; reality delivered less.
The oil sector's maturity forces innovation. Peak production occurred in 2019; output fell to around 270,000 bpd before revitalization efforts in aging fields like Tchibouela II and Tchendo II. Perenco invested $30 million to reach 80,000 bpd in October 2024, targeting 100,000 bpd in 2025. TotalEnergies and Chevron sold their Congo interests to Trident Energy in January 2025, signaling major producers' retreat from mature African assets. Gas development offers expansion: the Gas Master Plan aims to unlock 10 trillion cubic feet, with two FLNG units producing 3 million tonnes LNG annually by 2025.
The budget achieved 4% surplus in 2024—a sign of fiscal discipline amid uncertainty. Current account surplus reached 3.2% of GDP. But lower oil prices threaten this resilience, and the country's dependence on mature fields mirrors an aging ecosystem: extraction continues, yet new growth requires increasingly costly intervention. Congo demonstrates how oil economies must continuously reinvest in exploration and diversification just to maintain current output—a Red Queen dynamic where running faster means staying in place.