Poland
Poland exhibits refugee mutualism: Ukrainian refugees added 2.7% to 2024 GDP (€23.1B), with 69% employment rate and tax contributions fully offsetting support costs.
Poland discovered that refugee absorption generates economic growth rather than drain. Ukrainian refugees added 2.7% to Poland's GDP in 2024—equivalent to €23.1 billion in additional output—according to UNHCR/Deloitte analysis. This figure increased from 1.5% in 2022 to 2.3% in 2023, and projections suggest 3.2% by 2030. Far from displacing Polish workers, refugees contributed to rising employment and productivity for native citizens. Poland hosts nearly 1 million Ukrainians, second only to Germany in the EU.
The labor market integration is exceptional: 69% of working-age Ukrainian refugees are employed, only slightly below the 75% rate for Polish citizens. Poland has the highest refugee employment rate among OECD countries receiving large Ukrainian flows. In 2024, taxes and social contributions from refugees generated 47 billion zlotys (2.7% of total revenues), fully compensating for social support costs. The biological analogy is mutualism: both populations benefit from the interaction.
Yet Poland's broader fiscal position complicates the narrative. The deficit widened to 5.9% of GDP in 2024, putting the country in the EU's Excessive Deficit Procedure. Defense spending, infrastructure investment, and social programs strain finances even as refugee contributions provide offset. Poland has doubled its economy over two decades, with real GDP per capita rising from 50% of the EU27 average to 80%. GDP growth reached 2.8% in 2024, up from 0.1% in 2023. The refugee dividend demonstrates that population flows can be economically positive—particularly when integration policies work—challenging assumptions about migration as burden.