Peru
Peru exhibits political friction limiting resource extraction: 12% GDP from mining, 2.75M tonnes copper (2024), but social conflicts and ministerial turnover delay expansion.
Peru produced 2.75 million metric tons of copper in 2024—once second globally but now third behind Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Mining represents 12% of GDP and copper specifically accounts for 60% of mineral exports by value, attracting nearly $5 billion in investment in 2024 alone. The Central Reserve Bank calculates that pending projects could double copper output, adding 6.5% to GDP over project lifetimes with private investment equivalent to 15.7% of GDP.
Yet the potential collides with political dysfunction. Peru's fragmented, polarized politics generate steady turnover of ministers and civil servants, undermining the state's capacity to manage extractive industries coherently. Social conflicts repeatedly shut down operations: when the mining minister tried to end the Reinfo registry for informal miners in December 2024, thousands blocked highways until Congress fired the minister and extended permits. The informal mining movement has evolved into a political force capable of determining ministerial tenure.
The biological analogy is an ecosystem where apex predators (formal mining companies) must coexist with numerous smaller competitors (informal miners) who collectively constrain what the larger players can do. With 2026 elections approaching, Peru faces a choice: dialogue that creates shared vision for mining's future, or continued conflict that delays projects while global copper demand triples by 2045. BloombergNEF forecasts copper market deficits as early as 2026. Peru's 2.8 million tonnes projected for 2025 could expand dramatically—if political capacity matches geological endowment. The country demonstrates how resource abundance without institutional stability produces chronic underperformance.